the momentum of the global economic recovery is strengthening. In 2017, the performance of the global economy was very bright, which also prompted the market to look forward to the better performance of the global economy in 2018. The organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) in the latest forecast released the day before, the global economy in 2018 the real GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%, and in 2019 will continue to maintain good growth momentum, growth is expected to remain at 3.9%.
overall, OECD is optimistic about the recovery and development of the global economy. "Strong investment, rebounded Global trade and higher employment rates have helped expand the broad base of economic recovery." OECD said that the US tax and spending increase policy and Germany's extra fiscal stimulus policy have become the key driving factors to raise the expected global economic growth in 2018 and 2019. Among them, the growth of the US, Germany, France, Mexico, Turkey and South Africa is expected to go beyond the previous expectations.
specifically, OECD predicts that the actual GDP growth rate in the US will reach 2.9% in 2018, 0.4 percentage points higher than the level predicted in November last year, and also higher than the 2.3% growth rate in 2017. More importantly, the rapid growth of the US economy will continue into 2019, and the US economy is expected to grow at 2.8% in 2019. OECD analysis says new U.S. fiscal measures will boost the US GDP growth of 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points in the next two years. And the gradual normalization of monetary policy will continue to be implemented, pushing up long-term interest rates to a higher level. At the same time, the labor market will be further tightened, and wage growth and inflation pressure will increase.
而能在西方世界中与美国经济复苏分庭抗礼的，莫过于欧元区。 In 2017, the overall economic growth rate in the euro area was 2.5%, higher than that of the United States at the same period. However, in the past two years, OECD only slightly increased the economic growth rate to 2.3% and 2.1% in the euro zone. "Loose monetary and fiscal policies have increased the labor market and pushed up the confidence of businesses and consumers, all of which are allRaise the demand. " OECD said that as the three most important economies in the eurozone, Germany in the additional fiscal policy stimulus, the next two years will maintain stable growth, the growth rate will reach 2.4% and 2.2%; France has benefited from the recent reforms, in 2018 France's economic growth will reach 2.2%; and Italy's economy will continue to maintain a moderate state this year is expected to grow by 1.5%.
in fact, in addition to the recent trade disputes in the market focus, OECD has given priority to the normalization process of monetary policy that has begun. For the major central banks in the world, the performance of the rate of inflation is the key indicator of its monetary policy path. In the case of the tightening of the labor market, the rate of inflation in the major economies is likely to increase gradually in the OECD view. The "liberation" of inflation and mild growth in the downturn are welcome, which will help to shorten the time for a loose monetary policy.
in the ECB,OECD believes that the upside of actual and expected inflation will allow the ECB to gradually reduce asset purchases this year and then withdraw from the negative interest rate policy. In the March resolution of monetary policy conference, the ECB deleted the expression of "expanding the scale of monthly purchase debt when necessary", which most analysts believe is the signal of easing monetary policy released by the European Central Bank. But Delagi, the European central bank governor, said it would end the purchase of assets only when price stability was satisfied with the target. The Bank of Japan is still facing the plight of potential inflation and low inflation expectations. OECD predicts that the current stimulus measures will continue to help them achieve the inflation target.